The Primary results are in, and it looks like Chris Cannon outlasted John Jacob. This is now the second time in as many elections that the anti-immigration forces mobilized a candidate to try and unseat Cannon and it's the second time they failed. In a lot of respects their last favored candidate, Matt Throckmorton, was far superior even though John Jacob is having a better showing. What are the lessons we should take from this election?
1. Immigration is not the issue that will decide this election. There were many in the Republican party who looked at this race as a bellwether. With Cannon winning, the national party should take notice that this is not the gay marriage of 2006. Why is this the case? I think there are several reasons. One is that even though people are against illegal immigrants, far too often the organized forces against illegal immigration are not just against illegals - they're against all immigrants. The American Dream has been built on the back of immigrants and unless you're a member of an Indian tribe, you're the child of immigrants. It's patently un-American to want to close this country to those who didn't have the same opportunities that our ancestors did. Another is that people aren't ready to give up their inexpensive produce, clothing, and other goods and services. A lot of these things are built on the backs of illegals and without them prices would rise as too few people were chased by too many employers. The upshot? Illegal immigrants are as much a reason for our low-inflation, high-productivity economy as technology is.
2. Substance will always win out over pithy sayings and fluff. Everything I read and saw from John Jacob was something along the lines of "You can't judge a candidate on what he says, only on what he does. John D. Jacob." Did he ever propose anything? Did he ever give any specific proposals? No. He just repeated his maxims, quotes from Ronald Reagan, and jokes about how his name isn't John Jacobs. What did Chris Cannon have? Specific proposals. Answers about why he voted for things like NCLB. Some dodging about immigration. Face it, a lot of what the anti-illegal crowd said about Cannon is true. Will he change his tune? That's a good question. I think he will moderate his views on immigration, but he won't become quite the candidate that Tancredo and Bay Buchannan want him to be.
3. Incumbency is a powerful tool. In Utah if you want to beat an incumbent your best shot is in Convention. If you don't, chances are you won't be able to overcome the name advantage that the incumbent has. Jacob had a lot of money and a lot of support, but it wasn't enough. He still didn't have the recognition that Cannon did. In addition, incumbents usually have the support of the establishment. It really helped Cannon to get the endorsement of President Bush. Of course, Jacob may not have gotten it anyway with his anti-Bush positions. If he had been our Congressman and had been as against the President as he said he was, I would imagine Bush would have supported the challenger.
4. Satan is trying to stop you? Not a good campaign move. If Cannon had said Jacob said that, it would have been the 11th hour dirty trick that would have been credited with his win. As it was Jacob gave himself the dirty trick. How's that for shooting yourself in the foot?
Of course, the election hasn't officially been called yet. Cannon's up 57-43 with 50% of precincts reporting. If Jacob does pull out the win, then this will be my "Dewey Defeats Truman." Somehow I don't see that happening.
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