Wednesday, January 30, 2008

The Florida Primaries

What can I say, I loved last night's results. The biggest question that it leaves us is "will Hillary Clinton tear apart the Democratic party?" For today's primary entry, we've got winners/losers/odds up ahead, and I have an idea that I quite like. I'm thinking of using a software called CoverItLive to do a live blog as results roll in throughout the night. Think of it as a test for election night, because I really want to live blog that night as well. Let me know if you're up for it...heck, with this software not only will my comments come across real-time, but it's interactive. If you want to pipe in, you can (of course, I will be moderating). I'd love some feedback on that idea...the live blogging would probably be between about 6-10 pm MST to hit all the contests that I'll be following. With that said, on to my analysis.
John McCain. This could give him the momentum to win on Super Tuesday. I think he'll still have to campaign past that point because there are a lot of Super Tuesday states that will swing Romney's direction and perhaps even some Huckabee states. Nevertheless, McCain is taking on the air both of inevitability and invincibility because he has actually strengthened, he's going to be getting the support of both Giuliani and the giant fork that's sticking out of Giuliani's back which should swing some more states his direction. This despite Florida being a closed primary, which was supposed to be his achilles heel.
Everyone else. Nobody moreso than Rudy Giuliani, who decided that a reprise of his standing on the national stage was appropriate for Florida, dropping like a stone into a weak third place.

John McCain - 2:1. I won't go so far as to say that he's the candidate, but it would take divine intervention for anybody to catch him at this point. It's not because of delegate count, it's because he's quickly becoming invincible seeming. Once it looks like someone has momentum on their side, it hurts everybody else because it's more just an impression that is then repeated so often in the echo chambers of our interconnected media that it becomes fact. Fact: McCain will be the nominee. There, I've just called it and I'm not even Wolf Blitzer.
Mitt Romney - 30:1. He needs a minor miracle at this point to jump back up. He hasn't won an important state important I mean a state that people point to as a bellweather (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida). He may have been the delegate leader before last night, but that's a moot point and always has been.
Mike Huckabee - 400:1. He gave up on Florida a while ago as evidenced by his concession speech in Missouri. He will serve to strip votes from Mitt and collect some delegates and maybe win some states, but as a serious candidate, he's done. His fourth place finish in Florida might as well be his deathknell.
Rudy Giuliani - 10,000:1. Welcome to Florida's Fred Thompson. Giuliani kept saying he had a great strategy, and it was indeed a strategy. I just don't think it should be considered great. I don't think he thought it was either, but his collapse in the early voting states made it necessary. As a result America's Mayor will not become America's President. He had some good ideas, and I think he changed the opinions of some of the candidates on some issues, but the best he can hope for is perhaps an AG post with the GOP candidate or a return to minting money on the speaking circuit.
Ron Paul - 10,000:1. Still possible, but I don't know why they invite him to the debates anymore. He's a protest candidate, no more, no less.

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